RetentionLens

Machine Learning · Causal Inference · Decision Intelligence

AI-Powered SaaS Analytics & Predictive Intelligence

Retention analytics for SaaS churn and revenue: segment-aware churn prediction (SMB, mid-market, enterprise), causal uplift modeling, survival curves (Kaplan-Meier + Cox), cohort retention, revenue forecasting with scenario modeling, and a budget-constrained portfolio optimizer for CS teams.

T-Learner
Causal uplift modeling
3 segments
SMB, mid-market, enterprise models
DP knapsack
Budget-constrained portfolio optimizer

Advanced AI Capabilities

Built on your own data. From survival curves and segment-aware churn models to causal uplift estimation and a portfolio optimizer for CS budgets.

Churn Prediction

Segment-aware models with 30/60/90-day probabilities and confidence intervals

RetentionLens trains separate models for SMB, mid-market, and enterprise segments — each with distinct feature weights and coefficients. Predictions include 30/60/90-day churn probabilities with confidence intervals, and all scores trace to model version and data confidence state so you can trust what you act on. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox proportional hazards regression provide the survival-analytic foundation.

• Segment-aware models: SMB, mid-market, enterprise (separate coefficients)
• 30/60/90-day churn probabilities with confidence intervals
• Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox proportional hazards regression
• Explicit data risk states (known / low / unknown) — EV-discounted when data is thin
• Explainable signals: tenure, payment failures, plan changes, product usage
Example Output:
“ABC Corp (mid-market): 72% 30-day churn probability [CI 64–79%], model v3.1, data confidence: high. Key signals: reduced activity, 2 payment failures, short tenure. Recommended action: CS call — estimated +18% uplift.”

Revenue Forecasting

Scenario modeling with churn delta and expansion delta sliders

RetentionLens projects forward revenue from your NRR, GRR, MRR waterfall, and expansion dynamics. Interactive scenario sliders let you model the revenue impact of different churn and expansion assumptions — useful for board planning, capacity modeling, and CS prioritization.

• NRR, GRR, and MRR waterfall tracking (new, expansion, contraction, churn)
• Revenue forecasting with interactive scenario modeling
• Churn delta and expansion delta sliders — see revenue impact in real time
• Expansion MRR intelligence and peer benchmarking by ARR band
Example Output:
“Base scenario Q4: $2.4M. Reduce churn by 2 pp: +$180K. Improve expansion by 5 pp: +$240K. Combined upside: $2.82M — see how you compare against peers in your ARR band.”

Customer Health Scoring

Composite 0–100 score with Red / Amber / Green classification

Every customer gets a health score that rolls up payment history, product usage signals, tenure, plan trajectory, and support interactions into a single 0–100 composite. Scores are classified Red/Amber/Green and feed directly into the churn risk list and decision engine recommendations. Data contract validation (across billing, product usage, CRM, and support sources) flags data readiness so scores degrade gracefully when signals are missing rather than silently becoming unreliable.

• Composite health score (0–100) with Red/Amber/Green classification
• Data contract validation across 4 sources: billing, product usage, CRM, support
• Readiness scoring and timeliness gate — scores are flagged when data is stale
• Synthetic data detection to avoid training on test fixtures
Example Output:
“Health: 34/100 (Red). Data confidence: high — all 4 sources current. Risk drivers: 2 payment failures, no product login in 18 days, support ticket open. Suggested action: CS call ranked #3 in this week's portfolio.”

Decision Intelligence

Causal uplift modeling, budget-constrained optimization, and full auditability

RetentionLens goes beyond correlation-based churn scores to causal inference: T-Learner heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) estimation measures the incremental retention impact of each intervention per customer — not just which customers are at risk, but which actions actually move the needle for each one. A DP knapsack portfolio optimizer then allocates your CS budget across the at-risk list subject to velocity constraints (max touches per week), so the team works the highest-expected-value accounts first. Every recommendation traces back to model version, uplift source (learned vs. heuristic), and data confidence state.

• T-Learner causal uplift: treatment vs. control churn rates per action type
• Budget-constrained portfolio optimizer (DP knapsack) with velocity limits
• Uplift source tracking: learned vs. heuristic — auto-promotes when data is sufficient
• Decision audit trail: model version, data confidence, EV discount on uncertain scores
• Peer benchmarking by ARR band using OpenView 2025, SaaS Capital, and Paddle 2026 data
Example Output:
“This week's portfolio (budget: 20 CS calls): 17 accounts selected by optimizer. Projected churn reduction: 4.2 pp. Uplift source: learned (Medium confidence). Each recommendation includes model version, action type, and expected value.”

Hybrid analytics + ML architecture

Next.js powers the UI and lightweight APIs; a Python ML service runs heavier compute (survival analysis, uplift estimation, portfolio optimization) and writes results back to Supabase.

ML & Decision Infrastructure

Segment-Aware Models

Kaplan-Meier survival curves, Cox proportional hazards regression, and segment-aware churn models (SMB, mid-market, enterprise) with separate feature coefficients per segment. All models version-tracked per org.

Causal Inference Layer

T-Learner HTE estimation accumulates outcomes as CS actions are taken. The decision engine automatically promotes from heuristic multipliers to learned uplift estimates once sample size reaches Medium confidence — and logs the source on every recommendation.

Data Contract Validation

Incoming data from billing, product usage, CRM, and support is validated against contracts before it enters any model. Timeliness gates, readiness scoring, and synthetic data detection ensure predictions degrade gracefully rather than silently misleading.

Data & governance

Primary data sourceStripe Connect (+ CSV)
Model scopePer org, versioned
Data sources validated4 (billing, usage, CRM, support)
Uplift sourceLearned or heuristic (audited)
Readiness & fallbacksBuilt-in

Models train on your own historical data where volume supports it. Every prediction includes a data confidence state and EV discount when signals are thin — no silent accuracy degradation.

AI Features by Plan

Choose the right level of AI-powered insights for your business.

Growth Plan

$59/mo
• Segment-aware churn prediction (SMB/mid-market/enterprise)
• Kaplan-Meier survival curves + Cox regression
• Customer health scoring (Red/Amber/Green)
• Decision Intelligence + portfolio optimizer (Enterprise only)
• Revenue forecasting + scenario modeling (Enterprise only)
Most Popular

Enterprise Plan

$229/mo
• Everything in Growth
• Decision Intelligence (causal uplift + portfolio optimizer)
• Revenue forecasting + scenario modeling
• Peer benchmarking (OpenView / SaaS Capital / Paddle)
• White-label AI reports + audit trail

Ready to Transform Your SaaS Analytics?

Join SaaS teams using RetentionLens to predict churn, model causal interventions, optimize CS budgets, and benchmark against peers in their ARR band.

No registration required for demo · Test with sample data · See AI in action